How much will Dutch collective agreement wages rise in 2027, and what does that mean for hiring?

Many employees in the Netherlands work under a collective labour agreement, known locally as a cao. It sets pay scales, holiday allowance and other terms for a whole sector or company. Each year the CPB forecasts how much those agreed wages will rise. For the market sector it now expects 3.8 per cent in 2027, after 4.2 per cent in 2026.

So the pace slows a little, but stays above inflation. The CPB gives two reasons: the labour market is still fairly tight, with unemployment forecast at 4.0 per cent in 2027, and inflation stays high because energy and fuel cost more.

A forecast is not a deal. The employers' association AWVN tracks what is actually agreed in its Cao-kijker. Across the 329 agreements signed so far in 2026, covering 2.12 million employees, agreed wages rise by an average of 3.23 per cent on a twelve-month basis. That was the position on 16 October 2026.

The two figures measure different things. The CPB looks at a full calendar year across all company agreements, the AWVN at the deals signed this year, converted to twelve months. For hiring the message is the same: next year, pay in your sector will probably sit three to four per cent above today's level.

A few sectors have already settled next year. Some examples, from the Cao-kijker and from the bargaining parties themselves.

Cleaning. The employers' association Schoonmakend Nederland and the union CNV signed an agreement on 1 September that runs until June 2028. Pay rises by 3.1 per cent on 1 January 2027 and by 3 per cent on 1 January 2028. The lowest pay group starts at 16 euros an hour from 1 January 2027, and 85,000 cleaners who had no travel allowance will get one from that date. The union FNV did not sign, but the agreement stands.

Flower and plant wholesale. The negotiated result from late September gives 3 per cent on 1 January 2027 and another 1 per cent on 1 April. At the same time the year-end bonus disappears. For a candidate who looks at total pay, that matters as much as the percentage.

Seed breeding companies. Here the result is 3.25 per cent on 1 October 2026 and another 3.25 per cent on 1 January 2027, plus a one-off payment.

Note the difference between a negotiated result and a signed agreement. A result still has to be approved by the members on both sides, and it can change until then.

Your salary offer ages while you recruit. A vacancy you open now brings in someone who starts in December or January. If you advertise the 2026 scale, the figure is already below the agreed wage on day one, and a candidate comparing offers sees a higher number elsewhere.

Three things help.

Put the 2027 figures in your vacancy as soon as they are fixed. If your agreement is settled, use the new scale and say it applies from 1 January. A salary that is right on the first working day saves a difficult conversation about money in the final round. Why the salary in an advert carries so much weight is covered in which employment terms candidates actually weigh.

No collective agreement? Look at the ones around you. An employer without a cao does not have to raise pay, but candidates compare with what they could earn elsewhere. If your pay stays at the 2026 level while your sector moves up three per cent, you quietly become easier to leave and easier to pass over. If you employ young people, check the legal side too: the Dutch youth minimum wage rises sharply on 1 January 2027.

Recalculate your hiring costs with next year's wages. A vacancy that stays open for three months costs you an employee you do not have for that time. If you bring in a contractor meanwhile, that hourly rate often rises in January as well. How the costs of contracting and outsourcing compare is set out in RPO versus an interim recruiter and RPO versus a recruitment agency. What hiring through us costs is on our pricing page.

Should my vacancy show the 2026 or the 2027 salary?

If the new hire starts after 1 January and your 2027 agreement is settled, show the 2027 amount, because that is what the person will actually be paid. If the agreement is not settled yet, show the current amount and say that a collectively agreed increase follows in January. Candidates prefer an honest range to a figure that is out of date six weeks later.

Do I have to raise pay if I am not covered by a collective agreement?

No, there is no obligation, unless an agreement has been declared generally binding for your sector or your employment contracts say otherwise. But candidates and your own staff compare your pay with the agreements in their field. Fall a year behind and you often notice it first in applicants who drop out after the salary conversation.

Does a one-off payment count in the salary I advertise?

Better not in the headline figure. A one-off payment comes once and does not raise the scale, so adding it to the monthly salary promises something that will not return the year after. Mention it separately. If something disappears instead, such as the year-end bonus in flower and plant wholesale, say so too, or the candidate will find out later.

Is 3.8 per cent the figure I should plan with?

It is the average the CPB expects across all company agreements together. Your own sector may be above or below it: the four agreements the Cao-kijker listed as most recent on 16 October range from 3 to 4.94 per cent on a twelve-month basis. Plan with your own agreement where you have one, and use the CPB figure as a reference point for the market around you.

SocialFind wrote this article based on the CPB's Macro Economische Verkenning 2027, the AWVN Cao-kijker and the agreement published by Schoonmakend Nederland, checked on 22 October 2026. If you would like articles like this in your inbox, sign up for our newsletter.