Is the Dutch labour market still tight in 2026?

CBS expresses tension on the labour market as the number of open vacancies per hundred unemployed people. In the second quarter of 2026 that ratio stood at 95 to 100, in figures updated on 30 July 2026, and the number of vacancies dropped by 3,000 over that quarter. The counter has slipped below one to one: there are again slightly more unemployed people than open jobs.

That is the number most headlines open with, and it is also the number that is easiest to misread. It is a national average across every occupation, every region and every level of education at once. An average that falls tells you something about the sum of the market. It tells you nothing about the role that has been open on your own team since spring.

For that you need the second measurement. UWV does not count the total but calculates per occupational group, and arrives at 93 groups. In the second quarter of 2026 the labour market for 87 of them is still tight or very tight. That is 94 per cent. Tension is easing, and at the same time almost every individual trade still has more demand than supply. Both numbers are correct, and they point in opposite directions.

If you run a Dutch site for an international organisation, that gap is worth knowing before your next budget conversation. Group reporting tends to pick up the national average, because it is one number and it moves. The number that predicts how long your own vacancy stays open is the other one.

Among the tightest occupational groups in that quarter are electrical engineers, machine fitters and plumbers, specialist nurses, physiotherapists and care workers, primary school teachers and lawyers.

The striking thing about that list is that it is not a list. There is engineering in it, healthcare, education and an office profession. The common factor is not the sector but the run-up: these are roles with a training route you cannot complete in six months, and where more people leave than arrive. A shortage of that kind does not disappear because the economy has one weak quarter.

The same split shows up in the sectors we cover. In healthcare and in construction and infrastructure very little changes in practice about how long a vacancy stays open, while the national figure moves the other way. How hard it bites differs per sector, and the overview sits on our sectors page.

We looked up the same question at the national statistics offices of Germany and France, at the source rather than in a trade magazine. The shape of the answer was the same all three times: the total is cooling and the difficult roles stay difficult. That is not a forecast, it is what three official counts say when you put them next to each other.

Here is the nuance that most articles skip. A falling tension indicator does not mean the shortage in your occupation is falling. The national figure moves mainly because the broad middle group moves with the economy: roles that enough people are trained for, where supply reacts quickly. The occupations that have been tight for years are precisely the ones that are not in that group.

In practice that means three things. First, do not expect waiting to solve your vacancy. If your role sits in the tight 94 per cent, very little will change in the supply next quarter. Second, a lower national figure can work against you internally, because it suggests that hiring is getting easier and that the budget can come down. Third, there is a group where it genuinely is loosening, and there it is a waste to keep recruiting as though it were 2022.

So the question is not whether the market is tight, but whether your role sits in the tight part of it. If a vacancy has been open for months with nothing coming in, the national average is rarely the reason, and what else might be going on is set out on vacancies stay open. If the role is structurally scarce, more of the same advertising will not fix it, and that is what hard-to-fill vacancies is about.

Is the staff shortage in the Netherlands over?

No. The ratio of vacancies to unemployed people fell to 95 per 100 in the second quarter of 2026, and the number of vacancies dropped by 3,000. That is a cooling of the total. In the same quarter UWV measures that 87 of the 93 occupational groups are still tight or very tight. For almost every individual trade, the shortage is simply still there.

Which sectors have the biggest shortage in 2026?

The tightest occupational groups sit in engineering, healthcare and education. UWV names electrical engineers, machine fitters and plumbers, specialist nurses, physiotherapists and care workers, primary school teachers and lawyers among others. These are roles with a long training route, where supply does not follow the economic cycle. An overview of the sectors we cover is on sectors.

Why is my vacancy still open if there are more unemployed people?

Because unemployed people and open vacancies are not in the same occupations. The national figure adds a jobseeker in one occupational group to a vacancy in another, which produces an average that nobody actually works in. If your role sits in the 94 per cent that is still tight, a falling national tension changes nothing at all about the candidates available to you.

Should we wait to recruit until the market cools further?

That is a bet on an average that is not about your role. For structurally tight occupations there is no quarter in which it gets easier by itself, and in the meantime the work carries on. It is more useful to work out which of your vacancies sit in the tight part and which do not, and to choose the approach per role instead of per year. See find staff.

We track these figures every quarter because they decide how we approach a vacancy. If you want to know where your own roles sit in this picture, SocialFind is happy to look at it with you.